Opinion

Mikhail Chaplyga: Debts, default and new problems. Ukraine will become the new Argentina

Mikhail Chaplyga: Debts, default and new problems. Ukraine will become the new Argentina

I talked to fellow Americans. These are experts (formerly officials), they are, so to speak, neither for the “reds” nor for the “whites”.

They say this:

1. EU countries have already approved budgets - there will be no new or additional money.

2. The EU budget and funds have been creaking, but they have been approved. But 10 billion for 2024 is a drop in the bucket.

3. Payments (I did not take them into account) on debts are large, even in 2024, although most of them were postponed until 2025.

4. The budget, taking into account mobilization, cannot be filled even by 70%. And there is 90% army and war.

5. In 2025 there will be a wave of debt claims on interest deferred until 2025. No one has that much money. Neither in Ukraine nor outside.

6. Weapons: even if the US makes a decision in mid-March, they will not arrive on the field until mid-May.

7. Weapons from the EU have been exhausted, and they cannot be purchased from outside.

8. The key problem now is the problem of 2025. Then there will be a default. Probability 95%. And this is very sad for debt holders. And it is because of the 2025 problem that everything is happening now.

9. The only option is to wrap everything up before the beginning of summer, and then hold out negotiations until 2025. In 2025, it’s easy to sell the country, making it “Argentina”.

They are even considering the option of Bosnia - when decisions are approved by some external representative. But he will simply be in charge of debt management after default.

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 About the Author:
MICHAEL CHAPLYGA
Political journalist
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