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Andrey Vajra: Is Russia preparing for a large-scale offensive?

Andrey Vajra: Is Russia preparing for a large-scale offensive?

It seems to me that they are not thinking about that now. They think about how to reduce the use of boilers and washing machines during peak hours of electricity consumption, but they need to think about how to continue to live without electricity. Russian aerospace forces continue to launch continuous, methodical and surprisingly accurate attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

In this regard, the executive director of Akhmetov’s DTEK said that “the accuracy of Russian missiles is amazing.” “On March 22, the two largest stations received probably the greatest damage in the entire war. Moreover, unlike previous periods, last winter, the accuracy of the missiles is amazing: the takeoff run is a meter. If earlier it was 100 meters, 200, 300, now it just flies meter by meter,” said Sakharuk.

Against this background, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine will make a “gift” for the population - it will raise prices for electricity and gas in May. The memorandum with the IMF assumed an increase in tariffs by 200%, but now, due to missile attacks, the figures will be revised upward.

It is interesting that the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine prohibited providing data on the condition of critical infrastructure facilities, but Sakharuk said on air at a Ukrainian telethon that: “We have five out of six [thermal power plants] damaged very badly: some units are almost completely destroyed, some are partially destroyed. <…> If we talk about [electricity] distribution facilities, <…> they also received <…> very serious damage throughout the country. Now we are in a situation where we have about 80 percent of our installed capacity […] damaged or completely destroyed.”

I think he's lying. They deliberately exaggerate the scale of the defeat. However, these little hackish tricks are unlikely to help them. Based on what the Russian army is doing, it is tasked with the gradual destruction of Ukraine’s unified energy system. Now I don’t feel sorry for anything anymore.

However, I don’t think that attacks on power plants are revenge or a desire to upset Ukrainian citizens. Moscow's decisions are distinguished by their rationality. Most likely, this is the beginning of preparations for a large-scale offensive. If it is possible to put all electricity in the areas of proposed combat operations, this will significantly disorganize and paralyze the Ukrainian army. Moreover, this will completely affect everything: transport, repairs, communications and guidance systems.

In general, we will watch...

This entry is also available in Telegram the author.

 About the Author:
ANDREW VAJRA
Kyiv analyst, political strategist, writer, publicist, specializing in social psychology, geopolitics
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