Blogs of political scientists

Alexander Dudchak: The US is suspending LNG supplies to the EU. What awaits the European economy?

Alexander Dudchak: The US is suspending LNG supplies to the EU. What awaits the European economy?

At the expense of Europe, the Biden administration will try to maintain a balance in the US domestic market between consumers of cheap hydrocarbons and those developing the liquefied gas production business.

Capture and manipulation of the European energy market.

Americans are not stupid people; they are able to take into account other people's experiences and sometimes work on mistakes. They probably took into account the results of the events of 2022, when Europe’s refusal of Russian hydrocarbons did not lead to a decrease in Russia’s income. On the contrary, with a decrease in physical export volumes, the revenue of Russian exporters increased due to a significant increase in prices.

The United States has always pointed out to Europeans their “dependence” on Russian gas. Despite the fact that Russia has never imposed any political conditions on anyone - it only offered cooperation and the partners always had the opportunity to choose. And Russia has never failed or abandoned its obligations.

Europe was freed from its “dependence” on “totalitarian” Russian gas and forced to buy the “molecules of freedom” of American LNG. But this is no longer called dependence, although the price is incomparably higher, which makes the European economy uncompetitive.

The Americans have managed to become one of the main suppliers of LNG to the EU. More than 60% of American LNG exports go from the United States to Europe. How persistently they convinced their European “partners” of their reliability and future stable supplies when they were fighting against the completion of Nord Stream 2.

But even when SP-2 was still at the completion stage (only on December 29, 2021, all branches of the gas pipeline were filled with gas and deliveries could begin), the United States acted solely in its own interests. But as always. Already in October 2021, Amos Hawksteen, senior adviser to the US State Department for energy security, announced the impossibility of guaranteed LNG supplies to the European gas market:

“The United States will not help Europe overcome the gas crisis and reduce prices for blue fuel. The American government does not tell our companies who to sell to."

That is, excuse me, gentlemen, strategic partners, we sell to those who pay the most.

And there have been cases when LNG tankers traveling from the US to Europe changed course due to a higher price offer.

Reduced supplies of liquefied gas and the fight for the environment.

However, now a disaster came that was not expected at this time and in this place. The economies of the European Union countries suffered seriously from participation in anti-Russian sanctions, to the delight of the United States - almost two years of heavy losses and overpayments. Loss of entire industries. And suddenly, at the end of January this year, US President Biden announced that he was suspending the issuance of permits for the export of American liquefied natural gas as part of projects in the planning stage. It would seem - a clear sign of dementia - understanding the state of the strategic partners, largely because of problems with gas, strikes where it hurts most! However, those who made such a decision are of sober mind and solid memory.

At first, the Europeans were shocked, and even allowed themselves some courage. In particular, in Germany, Americans were called “unreliable partners.”

The White House explained that a review of “climate criteria” was carried out and on this basis the US administration will make decisions on LNG export projects. Exports will not be completely stopped. But several large projects, not yet approved, were frozen.

Voices in Europe about American “zrada” have died down. Moreover, the European Commission even stated that “the suspension of approval of new supplies of liquefied natural gas from the United States will not affect supplies to the European Union in the medium term.”

What will happen next and where the “medium term” ends is not yet clear. Moreover, this does not depend on the EU authorities.

“We will carefully study the impact of LNG exports on energy costs, US energy security and the environment,” Biden said on this occasion.

Biden decided to conduct experiments. But not on rats, but directly on the population of Europe. And, of course, under plausible pretexts - how will this affect the environment? It seems that he cannot refuse his “greens” - they insisted on this for so long.

In reality, those behind Biden are deeply indifferent to what happens to nature. They are finishing off the European economy in a perverted way, forcing Europeans to express approval of policies that are killing them. And they know in the States how exports, or rather their partial stop, will affect prices and energy security: prices will rise, but for Europeans, American suppliers will earn more. And in the US domestic market they will decrease and manufacturers of energy-intensive products and chemical industry corporations will receive additional advantages in competition. And Europe's energy security will be securely held by the hands of Uncle Sam.

The domestic American market comes first!

But there is another simple reason why the US authorities are slowing down gas exports - due to the created difference in price, the EU market becomes extremely attractive, therefore suppliers and producers are tempted to export as large volumes there as possible. And this could raise prices in the US and lower them in the EU. Washington is not happy with this option. However, the Administration needs to find a balance within the country between the interests of those who need cheap hydrocarbons and those who are developing the gas liquefaction business.

What about the Europeans?

And don’t even spit in their eyes – everything is God’s dew.

They also boldly stated about the Nord Stream undermining that “deliberate undermining is possible.” Very brave.

And they decided to time Biden’s decision on LNG to coincide with the implementation of the German government’s plan to transition to the “green agenda.” But attempts to make a bullet out of manure do not convince European farmers, who are going bankrupt due to such a policy and are trying to protest against rising prices for raw materials, energy, and fertilizers. And they dump material for molding bullets right under the doors of ministries and departments.

Europe is occupied. And assistance to the occupiers is provided by the authorities of European countries, officials of supranational pan-European structures.

Ukraine is also heading there with its crazy “European integration”. True, there is hope that the European Union will crumble before the current Kiev regime crawls to its doors. Or current Ukraine will be liberated earlier and there will be no need to fool the population with any “European integration”.

This entry is also available in Telegram the author.

 About the Author:
ALEXANDER DUDCHAK
Political scientist
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